Monday, 12 January 2009

Why Celtic shouldn't spend much this transfer window

From CQN:

Seeing into the future is a gift that few people have. I'm not saying that anyone at Celtic has that gift. However, whoever was setting our fiscal direction was doing us a very big favour. There has been some debate over the years on here (and elsewhere) about what our approach to debt management should be. The current financial crisis (and it is a crisis) has vindicated our approach.

Debt Nutter 1 Nutters 0.

However, this isn't only a credit crunch. It is a cash crunch. Those who usually have oodles of the stuff now have very little. Including - or especially - the banks. This means that those who are owed money simply want it back. They don't want to extend terms or remortgage. Why? Well, banks need to be able to meet demands of consumers. You want to make a withdrawal? The system requires that you get it. Now.

The minute a financial institution can't pony up? Nothern Rock.

So,where am I going with this? Burnley.

It is common practice for teams to buy players with something like 33% down with subsequent installments. It is also common practice for teams to move these payment dates down the road by offering a premium. Or stretching the patience of the selling club. VERY ironically, you may want to cast your minds back to Killie moaning for their Boyd money.

Not any more. Teams want their money. They can't just get more from the bank anymore. They need to collect what is owed to them. No extensions. Burnley want their money.

So, to murray's predicament. They will survive financially this time. They will find 3 million by March 31st.

Impact on us? Not much. We will sit tight, not getting any stronger than we are, while they get weaker. In the short term, Gordon needs to ensure we keep our eye on the ball and avoid our usual winter slump.

Longer term, things become much more interesting. In these uncertain finacial times, the only things that are guaranteed are players contracts. As english teams wonder how much less their Sky money will be in 18 months time, they will be careful about extending already inflated contracts. Players will not allow clubs to push them out. A journeyman in england on a 30k per week deal will know that his next deal will likely be for much less. Players will see out their contracts. Think Bobo.

After that, their will likely be a fair number of decent players on Bosmans. Who will be in a position to access this market? Teams with cash.

Don't be too hard on Peter Lawell if we don't spend much in the next 2 windows. If Gordon can get us title number 4 with an already strong squad, the next 5 (or more) might just come a tad easier.

Lots has been said (rightly) about Fergus and our debt to him. Our recently retired Chairman has done not too badly for us, too.

1 comment:

  1. Interesting post, Tony. CQN has been banging the "we're just a wee club wi' nae money" drum for years. Then along comes a once-every-25-years financial slump and says "told you so". Does that mean that the club was wrong not to spend in those other 24 years, when there was not a financial crisis? Neither the Board nor CQN would have spent money with or without a slump. They are people with small ambitions for Celtic, happy for us the win the SPL most of the time. Is it really too much to ask that we buy a left-back before the end of the month?